Closing Line Value (CLV)
Also known as: CLV
The edge you got vs. where the line closed. The single best leading indicator of long-term betting profitability.
Closing Line Value (CLV) measures whether the price you took beat the closing line. If you bet Packers -3 at -110 and the line closed at -4 -110, you’ve got positive CLV; the market moved toward your side.
Why CLV matters:
- Public bettors and sharps both win and lose individual bets. The difference shows up over hundreds of wagers.
- The closing line is the most efficient market available; it incorporates all sharp money. Beating it consistently means you’re picking up edge.
- Sportsbooks track CLV by account. Consistently positive CLV is the fastest way to get limited or banned at recreational books.
If you beat the closing line 53%+ of the time at fair juice, you’re a long-term winning bettor regardless of short-term variance.