Concept

Closing Line Value (CLV)

Also known as: CLV


The edge you got vs. where the line closed. The single best leading indicator of long-term betting profitability.

Closing Line Value (CLV) measures whether the price you took beat the closing line. If you bet Packers -3 at -110 and the line closed at -4 -110, you’ve got positive CLV; the market moved toward your side.

Why CLV matters:

  • Public bettors and sharps both win and lose individual bets. The difference shows up over hundreds of wagers.
  • The closing line is the most efficient market available; it incorporates all sharp money. Beating it consistently means you’re picking up edge.
  • Sportsbooks track CLV by account. Consistently positive CLV is the fastest way to get limited or banned at recreational books.

If you beat the closing line 53%+ of the time at fair juice, you’re a long-term winning bettor regardless of short-term variance.