Edge

Your edge is the difference between your estimated true probability of an outcome and the probability implied by the betting line.

Example: A line of -110 implies 52.4% probability. If you believe the team’s true win probability is 55%, you have a 2.6% edge; and a profitable bet over the long run.

Edge is found in:

• Information advantage (injury news, weather, lineup changes)
• Pricing inefficiency (book hasn’t moved the line enough)
• Specialized markets (smaller props, alternate lines, less-covered sports)

Without edge, you’re paying the vig and slowly losing. With edge and good bankroll management, you can win consistently.