Longshot
A heavy underdog with very long odds; +500 or longer in pro sports, sometimes thousands of dollars in futures.
A longshot is a heavy underdog. The exact threshold isn’t strict, but generally:
- +500 or longer at the moneyline
- +2000 or longer in futures
Longshots have low win probability but pay big when they hit. The public loves them because the payoff feels life-changing. The math usually doesn’t justify it; most longshot markets are priced with extra juice precisely because casual bettors overrate them.
The rare exception: an undervalued futures longshot before a season starts, where you have a genuine information advantage the market hasn’t priced in.